auchinclosspoulos

U.S. Rep. Jake Auchincloss is facing a primary challenge from Jason Poulos, right. Courtesy photos

A new survey–indeed, the only set of numbers we have to show how the Massachusetts’ fourth congressional district Democratic primary is going–shows that incumbent Jake Auchincloss is holding strong against what seems to be a nationwide party revolt from the left.

While leftists in Massachusetts’ 4th congressional district may be coalescing around challenger Jason Poulos and despite more “Poulos for Congress” signs popping up around Newton in recent weeks, WPRI is reporting that a survey has Auchincloss with a 47-point lead over Poulos.

In the survey of 400 district primary voters, which the Auchincloss campaign commissioned from Global Strategy Group, 64 percent of respondents say they favor Auchincloss, while 17 percent say they support Poulos. The remaining 19 percent may be undecided or disinterested in either candidate at the moment, but 56 percent of respondents said they “definitely” plan to vote for Auchincloss.

If these numbers hold true, Auchincloss is on track to victory and, even if all of that uncommitted 19 percent went to Poulos, he’d still come up way short of a win.

Auchincloss, who was first elected in 2020, has been a target of progressive voters over his support for Israel throughout Israel’s controversial military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Critics have called him out over campaign contributions from the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and surveillance tech Palantir, run by the infamous right-wing billionaire Peter Theil.

But the third term congressman has gotten a lot of praise for his work on prescription drug pricing policy, housing affordability, social media impact on kids and more. And launching challenges to Trump administration appointees and policies has garnered him praise from Democrats across the district and the country.

The memo doesn’t break the survey down into geographical areas, but Massachusetts’ 4th district stretches across a socio-economically and politically diverse region, with urban clusters and farming communities.

Newton, for example, has nearly 90,000 residents, while Hopedale has just 7,000. Newton has a median household income of almost $190,000, while Fall River has a median household income of around $53,000.

It’s possible Democrats with bluer collars in less urban communities put more weight on kitchen table issues like grocery prices and prescription costs than what’s going on in Israel or which companies are giving money to whom. It’s also possible that voters lack enough confidence in the challenger to abandon the incumbent.

That’s all unclear, but it’s noteworthy that the survey showed Auchincloss with a 75 percent approval rating and 67 percent favorability rating, which would mean that even some people who aren’t thrilled with him think he’s doing a good job.

The primary is set for Sept. 1.

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