Your favorite bottle of wine might soon get three times more expensive.

President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on alcohol from the European Union starting Wednesday. It is unclear exactly which “alcoholic products” will be impacted, but Trump wrote that “this will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.” in a March 13 post on his Truth Social platform.

Trump plans to place reciprocal tariffs on goods from nations that most contribute to the U.S. trade deficit—and particularly punish the EU for its 50% tariff on American whisky. Because importers pay tariffs, the costs typically are passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices of goods.

According to The Washington Post, roughly 20% of European wine exports went to the U.S. last year, totaling $14 billion in sales. The tariffs are likely to increase trade hostility between the U.S. and Europe. 

Newton business owners say they’ll likely be forced to buy exclusively American products if the tariffs do take effect come Wednesday. Arpit Patel, owner of liquor store Oak n’ Barrel in Newton Center, said that may not be sustainable for American winemakers.  

“I don’t think it’s a simple answer as, ‘Oh, European wines have become too expensive. We’ll just drink Californian reds or something, and our economy will boom,’” he said. “There just wouldn’t be enough supply.”

Patel said he may see a decrease in sales if the tariffs take effect. Oak n’ Barrel focuses on European wines, and he doesn’t think the average consumer “is going to be willing to drink a wine that’s going to cost double or triple” what it used to.

Andrew Li, co-owner of Flora’s wine bar, said he is concerned about the impact the tariff will have on European vineyards, breweries and distilleries. He worries small producers across the pond will crumble and cause a larger industry collapse. 

“If there’s a tariff on car parts, cars are more expensive and people assume that it’s part of inflation, and they’re still going to buy cars,” Li said. “As far as French or Italian wine goes, it’s not a necessity, it’s a luxury, so people just aren’t going to buy it anymore. The businesses will fail, and there won’t be any tax revenue for the U.S. at the end of the day.” 

David Punch, owner of Sycamore, a bistro featuring American fare, wines, and craft cocktails in Newton Center, said importing wine from Europe after tariffs go into effect wouldn’t make economic sense for businesses. That said, he isn’t especially concerned; he “can’t see” the tariffs actually happening. 

“We just would have to not buy it anymore, which would be sad, because we have a pretty old worldwide list,” Punch said. While he believes in wine from the U.S. and thinks his selection from the Pacific Northwest, especially, is strong, he loves French wine. “That’s what I drink, so it would be a real bummer to lose that.” 

Punch’s main concern is that the tariffs coupled with Trump’s larger economic policies will cause a major economic downturn. 

“We’re already in a correction phase in the markets and such, but hopefully we don’t see a big recession come along or anything like that, because that’ll affect consumer spending,” Punch said. “Money that people spend on dining out would have to be applied to other areas of their lives.” 

This story is part of a partnership between the Newton Beacon and the Boston University Department of Journalism.